What do you do when you are impacted by unknowns?  Whether you are dealing with live projects or dead cats, the concept of progressive elaboration can provide guidance.   

Rumsfield has been quoted as describing the process rather poorly when he explained his search for weapons of mass destruction.  He shared how in any situation we know what we know, we know what we don’t know, and we don’t know what we don’t know.  To put it less clearly, we have known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns.

I will walk you through an example.  You know that your family car is making a horrible noise, your mechanic is honest but expensive, and you have not seen the family cat Fluffy for 3 days.  You know that you don’t know exactly what is wrong with the car or exactly where Fluffy is hiding.  What you could never have guessed is that it will cost $1,200 to remove what is left of Fluffy from your engine.

I have never lost a cat to my car, but I have experienced my share of progressive elaboration in my various careers.  Web site projects are notorious for expanding functionality, cost or schedule due to uncovering new software, hardware or stakeholder requirements or limitations.  In manufacturing, the sheer number of chemical and mechanical processes and rapid pace of technology mean you are bound to uncover something new along the way. In the bureaucracy that is public service, a new directive or public opinion piece can drastically alter whatever it was you thought you were working on.  Even in radio, the unknowns are significant when coordinating artists, labels, venues, and sponsors.

Through my experiences, I have uncovered a few lessons that may help you deal with your own Fluffy scenario:

1. Admit you don’t know

When I was in the Navy going for my Sonar Supervisor qualification, my Commanding Officer asked me a question to which the only correct answer was “I don’t know”.  I do not remember what my response was, apart from that I got it wrong.  Unknowns will come up that you cannot expect to answer immediately.  Acknowledge your insecurities around not having all the answers and allow yourself the time to gather the information you need. A quick answer will not bring Fluffy back.

2. Manage expectations early and bring your realist

The one conversation I am negligent in having is the one where I say, “This can go horribly wrong”. There are many reasons for my negligence in this, including the optimism inherent to my personality type, my natural desire to be liked, and a strong sense of vision.  These traits can be both valuable and disastrous depending on the situation.  If you cannot bring yourself to say the words, bring along someone who can. I call this person my realist, and they are incredibly valuable to bring in early in the conversation.  Fluffy is gone, and you need someone with a realistic perspective to help sort the situation.

3. Gather people with the answers

Experience mitigates unknowns.  The value of industry-specific project managers is that they can be a self-contained unit of technical knowledge and management nous.  However, the more knowledge and experience contained in the project manager, the greater the risk that the project manager will misinterpret a “gotcha” that will undermine the project.  The greatest demonstration of your knowledge and experience is to acknowledge that you need others to help you with what you do not know. While I am sure you have dealt with your share of family crisis, perhaps you need to find someone who has experience in telling kids about cat soup.

4. Life goes on

The question is not whether the unknowns will happen, but what you do when they do happen.  Unknowns are not always pleasant, and you will not always respond well.  The opportunity is for yesterday’s unknowns to become tomorrow’s knowns.  Embrace the unknowns when they come up, you never know when they may be the silver lining. Perhaps your kids really hated Fluffy and you can now buy that Gerbil they really wanted.